Power Emini Commentary – Notes – Education – Examples
This is the Power Emini “Notes” section. Below you’ll find ongoing commentary, trade examples, charts and general short-form random posts. This page gets updated every few days, so check back soon.
March Was a Good Month For the System
3/31/2026
The last 15 Alerts in a row hit Target 1. That’s getting close to the record. And with the volatility we’ve been seeing lately, Target 1 has been averaging around 9 points.
82% of the (filled) Alerts have hit Target 1 over the past month – since version 5.0 was released – and that’s the last 50 Alerts.
But as I mentioned last post, Target 2 hasn’t had the hit rate it normally does which is just a function of market conditions. However the Alerts that got close to T2 offered plenty of opportunity to take profits if you were so inclined.
Here’s what I mean. Yesterday the price came within 1-point of Target 2 and T2 was 33.00 points. Check out the “traction” and “Proximity Meter in the screenshot.
There’s a couple ways to look at it. So Target 1 got hit for +9.75 points and we were hanging on for another 33.00 points. But price only made it another 32.00 points past the Entry and then started reversing. As I’ve mentioned here quite a few times over the past year, I suggest when the numbers are that big it makes sense to be a little proactive as far as “protecting gains”. It could be something as simple as saying “close enough” and closing out somewhere within a few points of T2 or it could be just using a tighter stop than the system.
Newer users might wonder why we don’t have the system just move the stop to say T1 when it gets that close to T2, but in “normal markets” that isn’t an ideal strategy. You’ll see why when things settle down and market conditions return to normal.
I could make up a rule for trading the system – something like this: “Any time Target 2 is over 20 points and the price goes 25 or more points past the Entry, set the stop to protect 20 points of that profit.”
But look at the first Alert today.
You can see the “positive traction” on that Long only went +23.00 points in our favor and then price reversed and hit the tightened Trailing Stop.
So maybe I need to change my rule?
Here’s the thing. The system has been giving awesome trade alerts in this crazy environment and trading the system “exactly by the numbers” has been producing excellent results. But using a little common-sense discretion here when the market is extremely volatile can improve the results dramatically. Those of you that have been using the system for 2-3-5 years or so know what I mean. We’ve been through all sorts of different market environments over the years and there are periods of time where it makes sense to use just a wee bit of discretion.
Those of you that haven’t been around too long will see what I mean in the Summer when Target 1 is 3.50 points and target 2 is 12.25 points. It’s a whole different environment when the market acts more normal and it’s perfectly fine to trade the system mechanically in those conditions.
When the numbers are huge like they’ve been recently it’s not a bad idea to use a tighter stop than the system sometimes and protect more of the gains.
March turned out great for the system no matter how you slice it.
And over the years April has been one of the best months for the system seasonally speaking. I’m looking forward to it.
Today Turned Out Great – And A Couple Other Things
3/27/2026
Yesterday and today were almost identical for the system. Both days there were 2 Alerts and the first one just hit Target 1 and the second one hit both Targets. But there was a big difference in the numbers.
Yesterday Target 1 was 5.25 and Target 2 was 18.00 points (+23.25)
Today Target 1 was 12.00 and Target 2 was 40.50 points (+52.50)
So there’s a good example of what I mean when I say the distance to the Targets is based on the ATR’s. There can be a huge difference from session to session.
Following up on yesterday’s post, the last 12 Alerts in a row now have hit Target 1. That’s a pretty good streak. I think the record is 18 in a row. Only 4 of those hit Target 2 but the numbers on those were huge too. It’s a function of the current market conditions which have been extremely volatile.
I took a screenshot of the Alert Software today right after Target 2 got hit.
I wanted to point something out for the benefit of new users that I haven’t discussed much. Notice the “Entry Confirmation” (fill) was different on both Short Alerts.
The reason is because after the Alert fired off the very next 1-minute candle that closes at least 1-tick or more “past the barrier” triggers-in the trade. And of course the closing price of those candles was different. And that’s why the Targets were different on each trade. Note that the Trade Price Barrier / Alert price was the same. The Targets are based on the Entry, not the Alert price.
Also notice how long it took for each of those alerts to trigger. There was 18 minutes between the first Alert and when it filled. The second Alert took 27 minutes to trigger-in. That’s kind of unusual but the Entry Trigger strategy is part of the magic that makes everything work. Understanding the Entry Trigger is the first thing a new user wants to learn and that’s why I mention it so often. It’s extremely simple but very important.
And as you know, not every Alert triggers-in. It’s all explained in detail in the Help.
There’s actually a lot I could discuss about how today played out. For instance the Trailing Stop was never hit and the market closed the cash session 56.25 points below the Entry on that second Alert. When we talk about a “runner” that’s what we mean. And interestingly enough this new version of the software provides us with a lot of new data on the back-end we didn’t have previously.
For instance trading 2 Contracts and selling 1 at each of the Targets (on the second alert) scored 52.50 points, but trading 2 Contracts and selling 1 at Target 1 and holding the other using the Trailing Stop resulted in a 68.25 point gain. And yesterday was even more dramatic. Selling at the Targets scored 23.25 points but just selling 1 at T1 and holding the other for a runner scored 59.50 points.
I don’t want to get too far in the weeds as far as all this here, but the point is that we have much better insight into the outcomes of various scaling scenarios now. We have a lot of new data we can analyze that we built into the back-end of this version.
Here’s an interesting example. This is the “cumulative traction” over the last month for all the triggered Alerts.
As you know the “Traction Indicator” in the Alert Software displays the maximum positive and negative excursion of each (filled) Alert measured from the Entry price. It’s an ideal way of “scoring” the Alerts based on the Entry. That image is the sum total of all the Alerts over the past month since I started using the new 5.0 version of the software. Basically it’s showing that the Alerts have been getting more than double the “positive excursion” form the entries. It’s not really relevant as far as the Targets but it’s confirming the system is performing well.
I have a lot of other interesting things I’ll be posting here as we go forward. By now you should have a pretty good handle on all the enhancements we made to the software. The new look and visual appeal is outstanding. I keep forgetting to take screenshots of the “light” color scheme but I’ve gotten so used to the dark one that I really prefer it.
So there are 2 more trading days in March and then I’ll be creating a new “Notes and Commentary” page for April. We started this new format at the beginning of 2025 and I’m really liking it as opposed to having every entry be a separate blog post. It’s makes it so much easier to post every couple / few days and I hope you are picking up some good information.
I’ll see you here next week.
Unusual Market Behavior
3/26/2026
I’ve been working on updating some of the Help pages to reflect the new version 5.0 of the Alert Software. For instance this page about Navigating the Alert Software Features and this Step by Step Guide that walks a new user through an Alert from start to finish.
Those pages are geared toward brand-new users but it’s important to bring things up to date because the software / system could seem a little daunting to a first time user. But you know how easy it is to use and trade. Between the software and the system it’s just a lot to take in all at once so we want to make things as easy as possible for new users. That’s been keeping me busy and I’m making progress.
Moving on, the market has been unusually crazy this week and there’s still one day to go. Then two trading days next week and the month is over.
So I’ve been running the new 5.0 version of the Alert Software since 2/23/26 and what’s unusual is that out of the 45 (triggered) Alerts since then 80% have hit Target 1. That’s higher than normal but I’m pretty sure it’s a function of the market environment itself. The reason I say that is because only 25% have hit Target 2 and that’s a lot lower than the average going back several years. The long-run average should be around 74% hit rate on T1 and a 40% hit rate on T2.
What that tells me is that the market hasn’t had as many smooth trending moves. And the volatility (as we all know) is elevated. So what’s happening is that Target 1 is getting hit just fine and then when the Trailing Stop tightens 1-2-3 times, it’s getting tagged more easily due to more erratic price behavior, general choppiness, and the fact the market hasn’t been serving up as many smooth trending days as usual.
The last 10 Alerts in a row hit Target 1 but only 4 of those hit Target 2. Target 1 has been hit 18 out of the last 20 Alerts and that’s a decent streak. I’m sure you’ve seen some of these alerts that get a LOT of Traction past T1 but don’t quite make it to T2 or get knocked-out due to the tightened stop. Again, it’s all relative to the recent market conditions and over the long run things will revert to normal. They always do given enough time.
One of the more interesting things about all that is that Target 1 has been WAY further out than normal too. Since the beginning of March the average distance to T1 has been 9.00 points. That’s quite a bit more than what I’d consider “average” over the years. As you know the distance to the Targets is a function of the ATR’s and the ATR’s are a function of market conditions. So everything is kind of weird right now as far as the Target distances and the hit rates and that’s because the market environment isn’t normal. No big deal.
The system trades what the market serves up and over all these years it’s handled every type of market environment you can imagine and done quite well. It’s been holding its own so far this month given the extreme volatility. So far so good.
It Was A Wild Week That Turned Out Well
3/20/2026
This past week we had the Fed announcement and Quarterly options expiration and there was LOTS of volatility. The ES / MES Momentum System gave 8 Alerts that filled and 6 of those hit Target 1. Only 3 of the 8 hit Target 2 but the numbers were substantial given the volatility.
Here’s a screenshot of the Alert Software I took early in the afternoon. Check out the Traction.
As you know, the “Traction Indicator” shows the maximum positive and negative excursion from the Entry, so you can see this Alert took -3.50 points of “heat” before price moved as much as +57.00 points in the direction of the trade at the time I took the screenshot. At the low of the session the positive Traction was +95.75 points.
It may not seem like a big deal that this new version of the software measures the Traction from the Entry rather than the Alert price, but it is. Once you’ve spent some time working with it I think you will see what I mean. Everything about this new version 5 of the Alert Software is better. It might take a little time to get used to the new look, but so far the feedback has been positive.
If you’re a current user you should have the new version 5 running and if you don’t let me know and I’ll get you upgraded.
As I mentioned, the market has been a lot more volatile than normal and that will probably continue for some time given the “conflict” in the Middle East which is driving the news cycle. We’ve been seeing huge gaps at the cash open almost every day and huge intraday ranges in both directions. The ATR’s are elevated and we’ve been seeing 10-20-30 point moves in 5-10-15 minute timeframes. So it’s kind of a risky environment and it’s important to take that into consideration.
When we go through these periods of elevated volatility the max stop is in play a lot but that defines the max risk on any given trade. We’ve traded through these same types of environments many times over the years and eventually things settle down and return to normal. It might take some time but the “volatility is never here to stay”. The system has to trade what the market serves up and as traders we are basically beholden to market conditions. Sure, I’d prefer if the market was a bit calmer but hey – there’s nothing worse than dull market conditions. The sweet spot is somewhere in between where we are now and dull conditions. A “medium amount of volatility” is preferable and the best market conditions are when the market is trending on the daily timeframe.
As you know the market has been range bound on the daily timeframe for months now and it’s finally seeing some real action. That’s actually a good thing and the system has been holding it’s own. I’ve been using this new version of the software for about a month now and over that time 76.92% of the filled Alerts have hit Target 1. That’s one of the most important metrics because we have the system calibrated for a 70-75% hit rate on T1. As long as that’s maintained (which it has been 4-years running) the system will always be profitable.
There’s a lot that goes into the “why” but I won’t get into that now. It’s Friday night and I have a busy weekend ahead.
I’ll see you here next week.
A Few More Things About the New Version
3/16/2026
I hope you’re liking the look of the brand-new version 5.0 of the Alert Software. I’m liking it so much I haven’t even opened the old version in a while and I’ve basically switched over. We’ll keep the old version running for a while but once you’ve upgraded there’s almost no reason to go back.
So I wanted to mention an improvement we made to the new 5.0 version of the NinjaTrader “companion indicator” for those of you that are using it. And you may have already noticed it.
Basically in the same way the Momentum System shows the “Entry Pending” price on the Alert Banner when we get a new Alert, the red or green horizontal line that appears on the chart starts off at the Entry Pending level. Then when an alert actually fills / triggers-in that dashed line automatically moves to the “Entry Confirmation” level. The price at which the system took the Entry.
What’s nice about that little enhancement is that it makes it easy to see where you got filled compared to the system. As I’ve mentioned, sometimes you’ll get a little slippage in your favor and sometimes it won’t be. But it’s not a big deal because it will all even out over a long series of alerts.
Sometimes you can get some “favorable slippage” at the Targets too. Look how the price blasted through Target 1 today. And even more interesting was how “accurate” Target 2 turned out to be. In other words Target 2 was right there where the early impulse move ran out of steam. Shortly after T2 got hit the market reversed and fell all the way back to where it started the cash session.
It’s also interesting to see how the pre-market price action was contained inside the Trigger Range so the breakout of that range made for an ideal trade location. Before I forget, going forward I’ll be marking up the charts with the dashed line at the Entry price rather than the Alert price since that’s the way the system handles things now.
We’ve done a little work updating the website and a little bit of updating the help, but it’s going to take some time to revise everything to be consistent with the changes in this new version of the software. It will be an ongoing project so bear with us. This page is one of the best places to learn about all the new enhancements because I’m going to post about each one here as we go forward. Be sure to read the post below to see the changes in the Alert Banner.
Today worked out well for the MES Momentum System and made for a good screenshot since there weren’t multiple Alerts and Alerts that didn’t get filled. Just one Alert that hit both Targets and that was basically it for the session. Here’s what the software looked like when T2 got hit:
The market did a lot of zigging and zagging after that so it was ideal the system captured the initial impulse move and then was basically done for the day.
I have a lot more to talk about as far as new features, but I think it’s best to post them in small chunks. That way there’s not too much to read all at once.
A Choppy Volatile Week That Ended Well
3/13/2026
Ok, so I’ve sent the Upgrade instructions everyone and the brand-new version 5.0 of the software is running like a finely-tuned machine. If you haven’t upgraded your Alert Software to v5.0 yet email me and I’ll set you up.
Here’s a screenshot I took of the Short Alert this afternoon:
There were two other Alerts earlier today that both hit Target 1 and then tagged the (tightened) Trailing Stop, which was basically par for the course this week. Up until that final Alert of the week there was very little trending action in the market. It was more choppy trading in wide ranges with huge swings in both directions. It seemed rough.
But interestingly enough, the system gave 13 Alerts last week and 11 of them hit Target 1. And one of the two that didn’t came 1-tick from hitting T1 (on MES). But the “choppy conditions” knocked out a number of the trades due to the huge ATR’s and due to the way the Trailing stop tightens when Target 1 gets hit.
The Momentum System strategy of taking partial profits when Target 1 gets hit and tightening the stop to “virtual breakeven” quants out best over time as opposed to leaving the initial stop in place and risking a price reversal that results in a loss. The fact that Target 1 has a 75% hit rate (over the last 4 years) is what makes that work. Then when the market actually trends, like it did this afternoon, the system cashes in big when T2 gets hit.
In a super volatile environment like we’ve seen recently if all you did was trade 1 Contract and shoot for Target 1 that would work out great. But over long periods of time in more normal market conditions, Target 2 is the big prize. However there’s nothing wrong with adjusting position size and targeting / scaling strategy for current market conditions.
Since we’re just now releasing the big upgrade to version 5.0 I thought it would be a good time to point out a new enhancement
When the system fires off a new alert, the Alert Banner will show “Entry Pending” and the Alert level / Trade Price Barrier like this:
As you know, the next 1-minute candle that CLOSES at least 1-tick or more PAST that level triggers in the trade.
When that happens, the Alert Banner changes to display the Entry Confirmation price (the price at which the trade was filled) like this:
That’s a nice little enhancement and I think you’ll see what I mean when you experience it running live.
For those of you using the NinjaTrader “companion indicator” you’ll see this same thing reflected on the chart. In other words when there’s a new Alert you’ll see the red or green dashed line at the Alert Level to start, then when a trade triggers-in that horizontal line will automatically move to the Entry Confirmation price. The Alert Banners in the indicator will reflect this as well. So that’s something new.
And there’s lots of other cool enhancements in the new version of the Alert Software that I’ll be going over in the coming weeks.
My top priority this week was getting everyone upgraded to the new version so let me know if you still need the upgrade. All new users will get this version right off the bat and we’ll be working on updating the Help / Documentation to reflect all the changes in the coming weeks.
Have a great weekend and check back here next week for more on “what’s new”.
The Big Upgrade is Ready – Version 5.0 is Here
3/9/2026
It’s been a busy couple weeks and the intraday Futures have been crazy volatile. I was going to post some strategies for trading the system through periods of extreme volatility but just about everything I could say here is covered in that section of the help. We had a few alerts last week that came really close to hitting Target 1 but didn’t quite make it and hit the stop. But the “traction” from the Entry was like 10-12 points and it might have been wise to just go ahead and take it. Several Alerts hit Target 1 for roughly 9-13 points but never made it to Target 2 and thus turned out as “breakevens” trading it by the book.
In these situations there’s plenty of opportunity to take profits or use a tighter stop instead of letting the gains slip away. Check out the section in the help that goes into all that. Interestingly enough last week was a bit rough for MES but the MNQ system has been killing it. The last 11 NQ Alerts in a row hit Target 1.
But moving on, today we’re officially releasing the brand-new Version 5.0 of the Alert Software. I say “releasing” because we want to give all the existing users the opportunity to upgrade first before we call it a “launch”. But all new users from here on out will get this new version.
There are so many cool new features that I decided to just make a page to list them. You can see it here: https://poweremini.com/v5/
Here’s what it looked like today:
If you are an existing user just shoot me an email and I’ll send the link to install this new version.
Over the next couple weeks I’ll be upgrading all the existing users in batches to keep things orderly and in case anyone needs help. We’ve probably had a dozen upgrades to the software over the years and it makes sense to take it slow so we don’t get overwhelmed. Obviously it’s a “free upgrade” for all users because that’s how we’ve always done things over the years.
Speaking of which, we have a lot of work to do on the Help section of the website to reflect the changes in the Alert Software. That’s going to be an ongoing process over the next month so bear with us. The important thing to note is that the Alerts themselves haven’t changed. The logic that drives the system and the way the Alerts will play out are the same for now. As a matter of fact you can run this new 5.0 version side by side with the older version and you’ll see everything matches up.
But the new “interface” is way better. And one slight modification we made is that the Traction Indicator now displays the max positive and negative excursion from the Entry rather than the Alert Price. That doesn’t seem like a big deal but you’ll realize it is once you start using the new version. You can see some of the other enhancements at the link I posted above.
The green “progress meters” to the left of the Targets display the proximity to the Targets in real-time. And won’t take long to realize what a huge improvement that makes. When the market is taking it’s time to reach the Targets you can tell how things are going from across the room.
As we go forward I’ll be posting a lot of screenshots of the new version and talking about the various improvements, but for now I’m focused on getting you up and running with it so you can see for yourself. Those of you that have been using the software for a long time will really appreciate the enhancements.
This new version 5 is state-of-the-art and rock solid. I can’t wait for you to see it in action!
So Much to Discuss – Bear With Me
3/5/2026
I wanted to post a quick note to let you know we’re in the final testing of the new Version 5 of the Alert software. That’s been my top priority since the beginning of the month because it’s almost ready for release.
The past few sessions have been extremely volatile and there’s a lot I want to go over regarding that. Since the volatility has been so extreme and the max stop has been in play on almost every Alert, I wanted to point out a few things that might be helpful in navigating this volatility.
But I’m going to hold off for a day or two on that because I’m also working on finalizing the new version of the software so that I can let everyone get their hands on it. It’s a “free upgrade” to all existing users and I’m really excited about it. The new interface is amazing and there are tons of new features and cool bells and whistles.
I want to circle back to discussing some things about the Alerts this week and offer some tips and strategies for dealing with the elevated volatility, but I’ll wait until the week is over so I can give it proper focus.
Right now top priority is finalizing the big upgrade so you can start using it.
Second Best Session of the Year With Only One Target Hit
3/2/2026
It was the first trading day of March and it was a wild one. This past weekend was the start of the “conflict” in the Middle East. Futures opened about 1% lower. No one really knew how this first session since war broke out would go but the system has no bias. It just reacts to how the price action unfolds in real-time. The market decided to rally higher from the cash open and never looked back.
So how did it turn out to be the second best session of the year (so far) for the system with just 1 Target hit?
It’s because the numbers were huge and the Trailing Stop locked-in gains past Target 1. Just take a look at the numbers on the chart. This is the first time all year where I’ve posted a chart with 10-point increments on the price scale.
So Target 1 got hit fairly quickly after the Entry for +18.00 points. The Trailing Stop tightened several times and finally got tagged +29.75 points over the Entry for a total of +47.75 points for a 2 Contract trader.
When the market is extremely volatile like it was today and the ATR’s are huge, the Targets are “way further away” than normal. You can see on the chart that Target 2 was a whopping 60.75 points above the Entry and it was the Trailing Stop that did the heavy lifting since T2 never got hit.
All in all it was a fantastic day for the system with only one Target hit. That’s unusual but then again everything is “different than usual” all of a sudden.
Take a look at the System Notes to see the time stamps and how each “event” played out (read from the bottom up):
So there you have it.
I’m not going to get into discussing the implications of the “conflict” to the market other than saying we’re likely in for a period of extreme volatility. And we know from prior months how that affects the system. The numbers can get huge. In other words the max stop will likely be in play going forward and I expect to see huge intraday swings both ways in the coming sessions.
For the time being we have to realize that market conditions will likely be crazy volatile and keep that in mind. In conditions like this both the risk and reward increase dramatically and it’s important to maintain a proper perspective.
Before I forget, after the Trailing Stop got hit and closed the trade the price eventually rallied higher and hit Target 2 to the tick and that was the high of the day. Crazy eh?
Be sure to read the post below to see what the “big upgrade” to the software looks like. We’re in the home stretch with that and it will be available this month.
March 2026 – Big Upgrade Coming
3/2/2026
Last month we released an update to the Power Emini Alert Software and indicator. As I mentioned at the time, this was to set the stage for the big “upgrade” we have in the works. And the good news is that it’s almost ready. Version 5.0 is in final testing.
Here’s a sneak peek at the new interface:
This new version produces the exact same Alerts as the prior version. There are no changes (yet) to any of the logic or the way the alerts will play out – for both the Scalper and Momentum System. All the changes are in the “interface”.
But there are a ton of new features and I’ll just mention a few quickly.
– The Traction Indicator measures the max positive / negative excursion from the Entry rather than the Alert price.
– The green “progress meters” to the left of the Targets display the proximity to the Targets in real-time.
– When a Target gets hit, you’ll see the Check Mark light up to the right of the Target showing how many points were captured.
– The Alert Banner shows the Alert Price prior to an Alert getting filled. Once it’s filled it displays the Entry Confirmation.
– The Momentum Meter is now a progress bar but works the same as the old dial.
Plus there’s lots more!
I’ll have a lot more to say about this new 5.0 version as we get closer to the release. I’ve been running it side by side with the current version of the Alert Software to make sure everything matches up and it’s basically “rock solid” at this point. I wasn’t even going to show a screenshot of it until it was basically finished.
So when can you get your hands on this new version?
Well, we still have one little project to finalize and that’s getting the Ninja indicator synced with the new Alert Software version. When that’s done and I’ve tested everything thoroughly, version 5.0 (shown above) will be available to all new and existing users.
And of course it’s a “free upgrade” for all existing users.
By the way, if you prefer a “light” color scheme just change it to light in the Settings. I’m getting used to the dark color and I like it a lot. I think the visual enhancements are great and just wait until you see it working live in action.
So now that we’re getting into March I’ll be using this page to post commentary, notes and charts relating to the ES / MES Momentum System, our trading strategy and updates about the new version of the Alert Software. This “notes section” of the website isn’t intended to be a daily recap, but typically gets updated with new material every couple / few days. It’s a good place for me to post educational material and examples of how the Momentum System handles different market sessions.
Check back every couple / few days for updates.
Additional Useful Information
Moving Beyond the Trade Setup – Futures Trading Strategies to help Increase our Odds – In-Depth Article
February 2026 Commentary – Notes – Education – Examples
PowerEmini Day Trading Futures – Automated Alert Signals