Power Emini ES Momentum Target System Trade Alert History
One of the main challenges of posting “Official Trade Stats” based off of Automated System Alerts is that not everyone will trade the signals in the exact same way. In other words, unless every variable, i.e. position size, initial stop placement, delta targets, trailing stop rules, scaling methodology etc. is strictly quantified, for every single trade, the concept of “Official Trade Results” is meaningless. Traders are at different levels and can employ different tactics and money management rules in their approach to the system. Different traders can end up with different results based off the same alerts and use different scaling and stop placement techniques.
Targets that were hit are shaded in green. Targets with no shading means the Trailing Stop was hit before it reached that Target.
*stats are typically updated over the weekend – alert history since Jan 21, 20120
How to Interpret the Performance Stats
The left (default) tab at the bottom of the worksheet shows the results for trading each Alert, entering with 2 contracts and just shooting for Target 1 and Target 2.
Sell 1 contract at Target 1 and the other at Target 2 and use the main system trailing stop. This strategy has a high win rate and is simple to manage and easy on the nerves.
In the worksheet above you will see the Target 1 and Target 2 columns shaded green for Alerts that hit the targets and you will see the number of points gained / lost on each Alert in the T1 and T2 columns. The Exit column shows the level where the Trailing Stop was hit when price didn’t make it to both targets. The NET column shows the total point gain / loss for that alert.
All Targets and Runner Configuration (Alert History) tab
This worksheet shows the performance using the strategy of trading 4 contracts – taking one off at each of the 3 targets and leaving the 4th contract on until the system trailing stop gets hit or the market closes.
(Scroll to the bottom of the worksheet to see the Totals for each of the 3 Targets and “runner”)
Note the first Total column on the left next to the word “Total” is the number of points scored just trading 1 contract and shooting for Target 1 – using the main system stop (not the Aggressive Stop). The Hit Rate on Target 1 has been running between 70% and 80% and you can see the current hit rate at the top of that column.
To the right of that is the Total for Target 2 which was programmed to average around a 50% hit rate. If you traded 2 contracts and sold 1 at Target 1 and the other at Target 2, you would add up the Total values in those two columns to get your total point gain.
Target 3 has a much lower hit rate as you can see – due to the fact it’s programmed to be a “way out” target that typically only gets hit on long-range days. However don’t get confused by the value you see in the T3 column because there’s an important point to consider. When price reaches Target 2 you will always move your stop-loss to at least breakeven – or if you choose, move the stop to T1. So while Target 3 may not look that impressive, you will never take a loss once the price reaches Target 2.
The next column to the right shows the “runner” total points for the strategy of trading 4 contracts and selling one at each of the 3 targets and then holding the 4th contract until price either hits the system trailing stop (not the aggressive trailing stop) or the market closes.
The far right total is the total point gain using the 4 contract strategy mentioned above.
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