Performance Analytics for the Power E-Mini Trade Alerts
We’ve Developed a Better Way to Measure Stats – Tick Traction
One of the challenges of posting “Official Trade Stats” based off of Automated System Alerts is that not everyone will trade the signals in the exact same way. In other words, unless every variable, i.e. position size, initial stop placement, delta targets, trailing stop rules, scaling methodology etc. is strictly quantified, for every single trade, the concept of “Official Trade Results” is meaningless. Traders are at different levels and employ different tactics and money management rules in their approach to the market. Ten traders can end up with 10 different trade results all based off the same entry alert. Because of this, the only way to objectively evaluate the performance of our Automated Trade Alerts is to analyze what I call Positive/Negative Tick Traction.
How To Interpret The Daily Tick Traction Performance Charts
A simple and effective way to measure the accuracy of Automated Trading Signals is to plot the number of Positive vs. Negative tick movements experienced after a Trade Alert is issued and a trade entered.
In Trade Example A you will notice that after the trade alert was issued, that price only moved 2 ticks in your favor before reversing and incurring -2.50 points of negative tick traction most likely hitting a stop. This is an example of a bad trade entry with little follow-through. Trade B on the other hand only experiences -2 ticks of negative traction or “drawdown” before moving in your favor positive 2.50 points. This is an example of a winning trade entry with little drawdown.
PowerEmini Trade Alert History
Each individual discretionary trader can choose from different methodologies to Trade off the System Breakout levels. The System computes High Probability Trade Barriers and alerts us when price approaches and crosses these levels. (The system does not know if or where we decide to take a trade.) Individual Trader Results will be based on many personal factors. i.e. Trade Size, Trade Configuration and Scaling, Initial Stop Placement, Trailing Stop Movement, Price Targets, etc.
Because of this, no two traders are guaranteed to achieve the same exact trade results. The main question you want to ask regarding the System Performance Stats is: Do the System Signals expose me to MORE Positive Price Traction Vs. Negative Traction?
( Alert History Automatically Generated by the New v4.5 System )
To analyze the Alert History, the best way to see how the negative traction vs. positive traction played out (in which order) is to review the chart at the time of the alert. The Time Stamps on the Alert History pages are U.S. Eastern Time Zone. Keep in mind the Alert History only shows alerts that would have filled based on that specific algos criteria. For the Scalper systems that means there must be a 1-minute price bar that closes at least 1-tick past the Trade barrier. For the Momentum Systems a valid entry is when there is a 5-minute price bar close past the Trade Barrier.
PowerEmini Example Trade
Above is an example of a typical Power E-mini Momentum Breakout Alert LONG with a corresponding 1 Minute Bar Chart to the right. The Alert Software always maintains the DYNAMIC TRIGGER RANGE (you can plot two horizontal lines on your trading chart for visual reference points) and alerts you with visual and audio signals when price starts to get close to either of the price barriers. (Called Proximity Alerts) The software gives us a TRADE PRICE BARRIER to work with. When price crosses the Alert Barrier and we get a 1-Minute Bar Close past the barrier we enter the trade. The Alert software also provides us with a Trailing Stop to work with. What we are looking for is the market to make an IMPULSE MOVE after crossing the barrier in our favor – and follow-through on that move.
Here is an important thing to understand about the System Performance Stats.
Each Individual Discretionary Trader can trade off the Alerts in a variety of ways. For instance, one trader might enter a trade with 1 contract and hold for the entire move to the Dynamic Macro Target. Another trader might enter with 2 contracts and take profits on both contracts at a quick scalping target of + 1.50 points, even though price could go much further. (Sometimes the moves can be substantial – in the example above price ended up moving over 8 points after passing the Trade Barrier). Still another trader entering with 4 contracts, may wish to scale out with half at our recommended ES DELTA TARGET of +0.75 – scaling out another contract at +2.50 and then holding the remaining contract with a trailing stop for a potential significant run. Also keep in mind that trades could be added to as price works its way across the “playing field” from the Trade Price Barrier to the Dynamic Macro Target. So even though in the end, PRICE will move the SAME DISTANCE for everyone – individual traders will play these Impulse Moves with different trade sizes and configurations and may vary their approach from time to time, it is therefore impossible to track an official ROI based on actual trades based off a group following the system signals. The Performance data therefore only shows Raw Price Movement past our trade barriers with the max point move recorded before the system resets for the next alert.