Power Emini ES Momentum Target System Trade Alert History
One of the main challenges of posting “Official Trade Stats” based off of Automated System Alerts is that not everyone will trade the signals in the exact same way. In other words, unless every variable, i.e. position size, initial stop placement, delta targets, trailing stop rules, scaling methodology etc. is strictly quantified, for every single trade, the concept of “Official Trade Results” is meaningless. Traders are at different levels and can employ different tactics and money management rules in their approach to the system. Different traders can end up with different results based off the same alerts and use different scaling and stop placement techniques.
*stats are typically updated over the weekend *2022 stats modified to reflect new fixed max stop of 18 points per contract
How to Interpret the Performance Stats
The worksheet shows the results for trading each Alert, entering with 2 contracts and just shooting for Target 1 and Target 2.
Sell 1 contract at Target 1 and the other at Target 2 and use the main system trailing stop. This strategy has a high win rate and is simple to manage and easy on the nerves. You can set easily up an ATM strategy that places the sell orders at the targets and sets the stop – then you simply drag your orders on the chart to the proper levels.
In the worksheet above you will see the Target 1 and Target 2 columns shaded green for Alerts that hit the targets and you will see the number of points gained / lost on each Alert in the T1 and T2 columns. The Exit column shows the level where the Trailing Stop was hit when price didn’t make it to both targets. The NET column shows the total point gain / loss for that alert.
How to Trade Along with the Momentum System Purely Mechanically
To keep things real basic and the initial risk low we recommend EVERYONE get started following the Momentum Breakout System with only 2 Micro contracts and take profits at Target 1 and Target 2 – using the main wide system Trailing Stop. Target #1 has roughly a 75% chance of getting hit and Target 2 will get hit about 40% the time for a significant point gain. Please see our Momentum System Trade Plan for a step-by-step guide to getting started with the Momentum System.
Many Users Will Do Better Than The Alert History Stats
There are several other things to consider when analyzing the stats above.
The stats do not take into account any “Runner Contracts”. Once a trader has graduated past the basic 2 Contract strategy and starts trading additional contracts, the results will be different.
For instance – here’s a day that would have been a losing day trading 2 Contracts, but a winning day trading 3 contracts:
Here’s an example of an Alert that a 3 (or more) Contract trader may have captured a significant point gain past Target 2 holding a Runner:
In both of those examples, the market extended its move well past Target 2 – and the Trailing Stop was never hit during the market session – in which case the trade is closed at the cash session market close.
Keep in mind the system now sets a “Max Fixed Stop” of 18.00 points (for ES) and will issue a max of 3 (confirmed) Alerts per session. This means occasional full stop-outs, trading 2 Contracts, is going to be -36.00 points. Three full stop-outs in a row, trading 2 Contracts, will be -108.00 points. It’s relatively rare but you can see it does happen.
There are other ways to improve “real life” results compared to the basic strategy and raw stats shown above.
An example would be using a “fixed stop” of less than 18 points under certain conditions, rather than taking the full 18-point per contract system stop-out. Eliminating a handful of max stop-outs can increase the results dramatically.
Another thing to consider is that no trader is going to be able to take every single Alert. In real-life people have Doctors and Dentists appointments and other things that will prevent them from being in front of the screen trading every single market session of the year. So certain Alerts will be missed and that will change the real-life results from what you see above.
The Alert History stats on this page reflect every single Alert produced by the ES Momentum System which is useful in determining what to expect from the system. Many of our users have done a lot better than what is shown using some basic common sense strategies.
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